CLEVELAND - With Ohio's March 4 primary less than a week away, young voters are increasingly being seen as the demographic that can sway the election in one direction or the other.
Leading up to "Junior Super Tuesday," young voters have been turning out in droves in primaries across the country.
"This could be a transformation electoral period in our history," said George Bishop, professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati.
"I suspect some of it is attributable to young people being very dissatisfied with the direction of the country, particularly the situation in Iraq," Bishop said.
The youth demographic, comprised of 18 to 29-year-olds, has been voting in record numbers in states that have already held their nominating contests.
In an analysis by The News Record, of 10 states that have voted in 2008 primaries, participation among both young Democrats and young Republicans has increased.
Among these 10 states, Democratic voters have increased dramatically in number from approximately 573,000 in the 2000 primary elections to nearly 1.7 million in the 2008 contests thus far.
On the Republican side, youth voter turnout has increased from nearly 635,000 in the 1996 primaries to nearly 788,000 in the 2008 nominating process.
The last three competitive nominating contests for each party were analyzed: General Election years 2008, 2004 and 2000 for the Democrats, and 2008, 2000 and 1996 for the Republicans.
The hotly contested Democratic race is tightening in Ohio, with Clinton beating Obama 47 percent to 39 percent, according to a UC Ohio Poll, conducted Feb. 21 to Feb. 24. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.
In the Republican contest, Arizona Sen. John McCain was receiving 55 percent to Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's 20 percent.
Among 18- to 29-year-old, likely Democratic voters, the contest was split evenly with each candidate receiving 49 percent of those surveyed.
At Debate '08 at Cleveland State University on Feb. 26, neither Sen. Obama nor Sen. Clinton pandered directly to the youth vote outside of mentioning health care. "About 20 percent of the people who are uninsured have the means to buy insurance," Clinton said at the debate. "They're often young people who think they're immortal ..."
Interrupting her, Obama said, "Which is why I cover them."
Finishing her thought, Clinton said, "... except when the illness or the accident strikes. And what Senator Obama has said, that then, once you get to the hospital, you'll be forced to buy insurance, I don't think that's a good idea."
Obama attempted to draw out the differences among the two candidate's health care plans.
"With respect to the young people, my plan specifically says that, up until the age of 25, you will be able to be covered under your parents' insurance plan," Obama said.
The even split among the youth vote in Ohio represents a significant change from actual voting returns in many of the states that have already voted.
In traditionally Democratic strongholds like New York and Illinois, Obama won a higher percentage of the youth vote than Clinton, 56 to 43 and 69 to 29 respectively.
Students from UC have been escalating their efforts to motivate students and young people in Ohio to follow suit on March 4.
Justin Walters, a fourth-year political science student and president of the UC College Republicans, spent Tuesday, Feb. 26 driving Sen. McCain to campaign events before taking him back to the airport.
"McCain's our candidate," Walters said. "As far as the primary goes, McCain's got it."
The College Republicans have endorsed McCain and are focusing their efforts on registering students to vote and educating them on the issues.
"Ohio definitely matters and we're just trying to help kids recognize that," Walters said. "Getting them registered to vote is the most important thing we can do."
Despite the age differential of a potential McCain vs. Obama general election matchup, Walters said he thinks McCain has a lot of attributes that appeal to younger voters.
"I've personally watched [McCain] outperform his staff," Walters said. "He was high-motor all the time and he had a lot of energy, and I think that caters to the younger voters."
The UC College Democrats are also working to educate students and younger voters to get them registered amidst their party's contested primary, according to Casey Trimble, a third-year political science student and president of the College Democrats.
"Right now we're just educating our voters," Trimble said. "For the people who aren't active in College Democrats, pretty much everybody is an Obama supporter."
The active members of the group were split 50/50 when they discussed endorsing a candidate. Trimble attributed both Democratic candidates' continual emphasis on change as the primary reason for the dramatic increase in voter turnout among young voters.
"I think it's just the possibility for change," Trimble said. "For the first time you have two candidates that seem like they can change Washington … change the way things work."
Bishop attributed much of the young voter cohort interest to candidates' use of new media, including social networking Web sites such as Facebook.com.
"Barak Obama has really taken advantage of this technology; Hillary Clinton has run a much more conventional, organizational campaign," Bishop said. "I think it's made a huge difference, especially for him."
As of Feb. 26, Obama had 639,600 supporters to Clinton's 124,927 on Facebook. Among the individual UC oriented groups of supporters, UC Students for Hillary Clinton had 27 members to Student for Obama - Cincinnati Chapter's 269.
The News Record Managing Editor Rachel Kellerman contributed to this story.
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